You
What is forecasted capitalized expenditures for GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT and ORCL based upon what those companies disclosed in their most recent reported quarters?
Oct 17, 2026 · 08:10 UTC
Snapshot created October 17, 2026 · 08:15 UTC
What is forecasted capitalized expenditures for GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT and ORCL based upon what those companies disclosed in their most recent reported quarters?
Oct 17, 2026 · 08:10 UTC
Going by what each company said on its most recent earnings call, the four guides add up to roughly $690B. That's not a clean calendar-year total: Oracle guides on a June–May fiscal year, and Microsoft's number is shrunk by an accounting change. Here is each guide, followed by my own math on what it implies for the rest of the period.
| Company | Period guided | Latest guide | Prior guide | Latest quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | CY2026 | $195–205B | $180–190B | $44.9B (Q2 2026) |
| AMZN | CY2026 (cash capex) | ~$220B | ~$200B | $53.1B (Q2 2026) |
| MSFT | CY2026 (capex + finance leases) | ~$175B | ~$190B | $41B (Q4 FY26) |
| ORCL | FY27 (Jun 2026–May 2027) | $90–95B gross; ≤$70B net cash | Unchanged | $28.5B (Q1 FY27) |
Alphabet. The CFO said full-year 2026 CapEx guidance is now $195 billion-$205 billion, up from the previous $180 billion-$190 billion, primarily due to faster capacity delivery to meet demand. For next year, she said they continue to expect CapEx to increase significantly in 2027 and will provide more details at a later date. There is no 2027 number yet. Filed capex for the first half was $80,598M (Q2 10-Q, filed July 23). Hitting the guide means $114–124B in the second half, or about $57–62B a quarter, against $44.9B in Q2. That's my calculation. It's a big step-up, and it backs your full-stack thesis on demand. The cost is that Q2 free cash flow was negative $5.9 billion.
Amazon. "We now believe we will spend approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026," with higher memory costs pushing it up from about $200 billion. So the raise is mostly price inflation, not more capacity. Filed gross purchases of property and equipment were $54,208M in Q2 and $98,411M for the first half (Q2 10-Q). That implies roughly $61B a quarter in the second half. Treat that as approximate: the guide is net of proceeds, while the filed figure is gross.
Microsoft. This one needs the most care, and it's the accounting-quality issue you've been tracking:
- The ~$175B is calendar 2026. "Outside of this useful life impact, our calendar year 2026 CapEx investment expectations remain unchanged. However, the shift from finance to operating leases adjusts our expectation to approximately $175 billion."
- Why it fell. Microsoft is stretching the estimated useful life of its data centers and office buildings from 15 years to 25. More leases will be booked as operating leases, which don't count in its capex figure. Actual spending is unchanged; only the reported number dropped by about $15B.
- Fiscal 2027 (July 2026–June 2027). Hood gave only direction: capex will grow year-over-year, given demand signals across our portfolio, plus first-quarter spending above $50 billion including lease reclassification effects.
- Two errors in circulation. Some summaries call the $175B a fiscal 2027 figure; the transcript says calendar 2026. A widely repeated "$255–260B FY27 guide" comes from a pre-earnings analyst preview, not from Hood.
For reference, FY26 cash paid for property and equipment was $115,948M (10-K, filed July 29).
Oracle. The CFO reiterated fiscal 2027 CapEx of $90 billion to $95 billion and no more than $70 billion of net cash CapEx. Q1 capex was $28,499M as filed (Q1 10-Q, filed Sept 11). That leaves about $20.5–22.2B a quarter for the rest of the year, below Q1's pace. Either spending slows, or the gap is covered by supplier financing, customer prepayments and customers bringing their own hardware. Management said those deals do not require additional cash from Oracle, not that they require no CapEx at all. With revenue guided to at least $90B, Oracle is the only large AI builder whose capex is about as big as its entire revenue.
What to watch:
- Q3 reports this month (GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT). For Alphabet, whether Q3 capex reaches about $57B or more; if not, the guide is at risk or the spend shifts into Q4. The first 2027 numbers from Alphabet and Amazon would be the bigger news.
- Microsoft. Whether Q1 FY27 actually tops $50B, and how much spending now runs through operating leases. Its reported capex now understates the real spend compared with peers.
- Oracle. The gap between gross and net cash capex. That's where the financing risk sits.
These are all management guides, not filed figures. The Q2 numbers quoted from the calls (Alphabet's $44.9B, Amazon's $53.1B) are management's own definitions, not lines in the 10-Q.
Oct 17, 2026 · 08:11 UTC